Scoring Record
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Scoring Record
Every daily edition publishes four predictions, each with a weight, a named falsifier and a hard close date no more than seven days out — three rather than four on a day the edition discloses a shortfall. Each is graded 0–10 once its window closes, and the running record is recomputed and printed in the edition that grades it. This page reports that ledger. It does not keep a second one.
Since 16 August
5.82
280 predictions · 202 hits · 72.1 per cent · the fifty-fifth reading above five, on a tolerance of 5.81 to 5.83
As printed in the edition of 24 October 2026. A score of 6 or better counts as a hit. A mean below 5 means the calls read the world worse than a coin toss would have.
The figure above counts every prediction graded since 16 August, when this record was rebuilt from the ledger. The lifetime record, which includes the weaker months before the rebuild, stands at 5.47 across 449 finalised predictions, with 281 hits, or 62.6 per cent. The two are kept separate because the lifetime mean still carries 131 predictions graded to 27 July at 4.63, before the method was tightened; the difference between the two figures is the measure of that change, not a second ledger.
What the figure can show
A hit scores 6 to 8 and a miss 2 to 5, so the mean moves within a narrow band whatever the desk does. Across the 111 predictions graded since 26 September that this desk holds as rows, hits average 6.62, with 49 of the 92 hits at the floor of 6 because they rest on a failure to find the thing that would have fired them, and misses average 3.26. A perfect board would read about 6.6. A block of twenty carries a standard error near 0.33, so two blocks within 0.65 of each other are within noise, and this page does not call either one better or worse.
Against the baseline
Since 26 September, 92 of the 111 graded predictions held as rows came true, against 86 of 111 for a desk that backs continuity every time. The row-level ledger, its baselines and the reference classes are on the Data and Method page.
The most recent board, graded 24 October
Hit7The duties stay waived this week. Continuity, priced 90. No American body announced that the waiver was lifted or that duties under the act took effect. Marco Rubio, one of the two officials who can lift it, defended the waiver in Mumbai on 20 October, The Wire reported, and Holland & Knight wrote on 23 October that the duties remain waived. Lifted above the floor for Rubio's statement.
Hit6Outside the region: India keeps buying Russian crude this week. Continuity, priced 85. No Indian government body announced a halt or a cut in purchases of Russian crude in what this desk read; Rubio's remarks on India's diversification are an American statement. Capped as an absence.
Miss3No arrest yet for the assault in Abu Falah. Continuity, priced 60. Israel's police arrested suspects on 19 October over the weekend's violence, and on 21 October a Jerusalem court released four of those held, against police requests; police suspect the group of the attack on Heidi Levine and the assault near Taybeh, Middle East Eye reported.
Hit6No diesel deal from Jamnagar this week. Continuity, priced 55. Rubio visited Reliance's Jamnagar complex on 21 October; Reliance said the two sides explored commercial partnerships, with details awaited. No agreement for diesel from India to the United States was found in what this desk read. Capped as an absence.
Board of 24 October, mean 5.50 across four, three hits, from the panel of 17 October. All four were graded on the close day, Sydney time, before the day had ended in Washington.
The Brent call graded on 30 September stands, on the contract it was written on. It was written and graded on the front-month contract, as its reference settlement of 106.60 on 24 September shows. The November contract expired on 30 September at 103.50. The more actively traded December contract settled below 100 on 29 and 30 September, at 96.16 and 98.03. On the call's wording alone, the December contract would have fired it. Future Brent calls will name the contract they mean around an expiry.
Disclosed against open calls. The call of 20 October that no American strike on Iran is announced this week stands: a person briefed told NPR on Thursday that the United States and Israel are preparing for a possible attack in early November, which is planning, not an announced strike. The call of 22 October that the four Salvadoran technicians are still held stood as of 23 October: no release was found in what this desk read. The call of 18 October that no arrest is announced for the attack at Taybeh appears overtaken: the police operation of 19 October covered suspects in that attack as well, Middle East Eye reported; it is graded on 25 October. The call of 19 October that a suspect walks this week appears met: a court released five suspects on 21 October, four of them despite police requests, and police released another; it is graded on 26 October. None is reweighted.
The fault that published on 23 September has a second instance, and it was withdrawn rather than corrected. The edition of 24 September went up under a headline asserting that the market had priced the talks at zero, a claim its own text explicitly declined to make. Three rounds of fact-checking had narrowed the argument and nobody revisited the title. It was unpublished before it circulated and republished under a headline taken from the sentence the edition actually defends. Two further defects in the same edition, a correction box left describing a date the section above it had corrected and a source cited twice at two tiers, were introduced by the repairs themselves.
The general form is worth separating from the revision artefact it sits under. A repair is checked against the thing it was meant to fix, never against the rest of the artefact, and the parts of an edition that carry the strongest claims are the parts least likely to be re-read once the body has been softened. The rule taken from it: after the last repair and before the gate, the whole edition is read once as a stranger would read it, title first, then the correction box against the sections it names, then the sourcing tiers against each other.
Form, by grading period
Bars run 0 to 10; the grey line marks 5. Hatched bars rest on fewer than ten predictions and should not be read as form. Blocks are grouped by the date a prediction was graded, closing every twenty. The block that opened on 18 October stands at 5.96 across twenty-six.
The forty-prediction window, second, third and fourth readings
The window that opened with the board graded 18 September completed on 27 September. Change propositions ran at 5.77 across thirteen, continuity at 6.07 across twenty-seven, so continuity finished ahead by 0.30. The first reading, closed on 17 September, had change ahead by the same margin. The third window opened with the last prediction graded on 27 September, a continuity call at 2, and completed on 8 October. Change propositions ran at 6.14 across seven, continuity at 5.97 across thirty-three, so change finished ahead by 0.17. The fourth window opened with the last two predictions graded on 8 October, one change at 3 and one continuity at 4, and completed on 18 October. Change propositions ran at 6.10 across ten and continuity at 6.10 across thirty, level. A fifth window opened with the last two predictions graded on 18 October, both continuity calls, at 7 and 6. It stands at twenty-six predictions: continuity at 5.96 across twenty-three and change at 6.00 across three.
Four readings, two with change ahead, one with continuity ahead and one level, each apart by 0.30 or less, are not a finding in either direction. The standing caution is unchanged: change propositions are published only where this desk already believes them, so they are selected for changes visibly under way, while continuity carries no equivalent filter.
Open predictions and when they close
| Edition | Calls | Closes |
|---|---|---|
| 18 October | 4 | Sun 25 October |
| 19 October | 4 | Mon 26 October |
| 20 October | 4 | Tue 27 October |
| 21 October | 4 | Wed 28 October |
| 22 October | 4 | Thu 29 October |
| 23 October | 4 | Fri 30 October |
| 24 October | 4 | Sat 31 October |
28 predictions open. The four calls of 17 October that closed on 24 October have been graded. Long-horizon calls from special editions are held on a separate ledger and graded on their own dates; they are excluded from the figures above. One prediction from 18 August remains carried rather than graded, because the record that would settle it is contested and this desk does not grade a contested record on the convenient reading of it.
Nine faults on the record
| No. | Fault | First identified | Rule taken from it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drafting: the outcome decided by how a call was written | Early September | Each call names its actor, restates its object and opens its window at publication |
| 2 | Mispricing: a sound call priced wrong | 12 September | Price from the record of similar calls, then adjust |
| 3 | A wrong statement about the record itself | 17 September | Statements about this letter are checked like any other claim |
| 4 | A fault in the checking tool | 18 September | A tool fix counts only once a test shows it failing before and passing after |
| 5 | The inherited fact | 19 September | A fact carried forward is re-checked at its source before a call rests on it |
| 6 | The revision artefact | 20 September | The whole edition is read cold after the last repair |
| 7 | The unsearched absence | 21 September | Every claim that something has not happened gets its own search |
| 8 | A correction for an error never published | 21 September | A correction is written only against the published text, fetched first |
| 9 | The attribution that drifted, and its repair | 22 September | A repaired claim goes back to the weakest source that made it |
Ordered by when each was first identified, not by severity. The dominant fault on this record through the first week of September was drafting. From 12 to 16 September the live fault was mispricing: propositions correctly written and simply priced wrong. The 17 September edition added a third and narrower kind: a statement about the record itself, rather than about the world, that turned out to be wrong. The 18 September edition added a fourth, one level further removed — a fault in the checking mechanism rather than in a proposition or in a statement about the record. The 19 September edition added a fifth, the inherited fact. The 20 September edition added a sixth, the revision artefact. The 21 September edition added a seventh and an eighth. The 22 September edition adds a ninth, set out last. None is retired.
The fifth, the inherited fact. The edition of 18 September placed a Korean naval unit near the Strait of Hormuz. It is in the Gulf of Aden, roughly fifteen hundred miles away. The 19 September edition repeated the error, because it took the fact from the prior edition rather than from the source, and a call was drafted against the wrong body of water before a direct read of the wire copy caught it. Nothing reached a reader in the second edition, but the first one published it and it stands corrected there now.
The general form is worth stating because it is invisible by construction: a fact that has already appeared in this letter is the single least likely thing in any edition to be checked again. Every other claim arrives from outside and gets tested on the way in. An inherited one arrives carrying this desk's own imprimatur, and the second printing looks like corroboration of the first when it is only a copy of it. The rule taken from it is narrow and operational: a fact carried forward from a prior edition is re-verified against its original source before it is used to write a falsifier, because a call written on an inherited error can fire on a technicality that has nothing to do with the world.
The sixth, added by the edition of 20 September, is the revision artefact, and it is the first fault on this list that has nothing to do with being wrong about the world. That edition was correct on every fact it printed and defective in four places anyway: a duplicated sourcing label, an enumerator with nothing to enumerate, and two sourcing lines describing a draft that no longer existed by the time it published. Every one was introduced by editing, in a revision round that was itself prompted by a correction.
Related, and recorded with it because the mechanism is the same: during that round a computed figure was written into three successive drafts as an unfilled placeholder. The script that should have substituted it matched only digits, so it found nothing to replace, printed the correct figure to the operator and wrote none of it to the file. The figure was reported as done three times on the strength of that printed output. It was the editor's check, not the desk's, that found the placeholder still sitting in the copy.
The general form: a fact is checked against the world, but an edit is only ever checked against the intention behind it. Research faults are caught by looking outward at a source. Revision faults can only be caught by reading the finished artefact as a stranger would, and that is precisely the reading a desk that has been through five drafts is least able to perform. The operational rules taken from it are two, and both are narrow. A verification step must inspect the file it claims to have changed rather than report what it computed. And the last pass before publication is a read of the whole edition for internal coherence — labels, enumerators, and whether the sourcing note still describes the edition that exists — with no reference to the sources at all.
The seventh, and the one this desk would fix first: the unsearched absence. Three times between 19 and 21 September, a claim that something had not happened was published or drafted without anybody searching to see whether it had. A displacement count said not to exist had been published the previous day. A candidate solicitation said not to have been reported had gone out ten months earlier. A mediation channel said to be unconfirmed by any government had been confirmed by name two days before. A fourth instance was graded on 22 September, in a call written on 15 September against an attribution the American president had already made. A further instance was caught in draft on 26 September, as recorded above.
The form is specific enough to be actionable, which is why it is worth separating from ordinary error. Every other claim in an edition arrives from a source and is tested on the way in. A negative claim arrives from nowhere: it is generated by the desk noticing that it has not seen something, and the absence of a thing in what one happens to have read is indistinguishable, from the inside, from the absence of the thing. There is no source to check because there is no source. The rule taken from it is mechanical and admits no judgement: any sentence asserting that something is uncounted, unopened, unreported, unconfirmed or untreated is a claim about the world and requires its own search before it is written, and any call whose stated current state contains such a sentence requires a search aimed at that call's own falsifier before it is priced.
The eighth: correcting the published record for an error it does not contain. A draft of 21 September carried three corrections against the edition of 20 September. That edition contains none of the three. What the corrections described were earlier drafts of the correcting edition itself, written the same morning and never published. The mechanism is that a desk deep in revision holds its own drafts and its own published work in the same memory and stops distinguishing them.
This one is worth stating carefully because its direction is unusual. Most integrity failures conceal errors; this one invented them. That is not harmless. A correction is the instrument by which a reader judges whether the rest can be trusted, and a correction to something that never happened spends that instrument on nothing. The rule taken from it: a correction to a prior edition is written only against the fetched text of that edition, and the fetch happens before the correction is drafted, not after.
The ninth, added 22 September: the attribution that drifted, and the repair that drifted back. A draft of that edition took a judgement made by unnamed officials in the region — that a reconstruction fund would be premature without a settlement — and attributed it to the American officials who had drafted the fund. The two statements sit in the same sentence of the same report, from the same group. On that misattribution the draft built its central argument, that the proposers had themselves named the condition their own proposal depended on. They had not, and the argument had no evidentiary basis until it was rebuilt.
What makes it a fault worth its own entry is what happened next. The repair moved the claim to the correct party and, in doing so, promoted it: unnamed officials briefing a newspaper became the governments being asked to pay, speaking on the record. Both upgrades were caught in a second pass and removed. The general form: when a correction removes the party a claim was wrongly credited to, the instinct is to substitute the nearest available party at the same strength, and the nearest available party at the same strength is almost always stronger than the sourcing was. A repair has to travel back down the ladder of attribution, not sideways along it. The rule taken from it: a repair that changes who said something is re-checked against the source for how they said it, because moving a claim and weakening it are one operation, not two.
Calls and claims written against a world that had already moved
The most serious pattern yet found on this record, and it was found by the editor's independent check rather than by this desk. Three times in three days, a prediction was published or drafted whose stated current state a named official had already superseded before pricing.
On 19 September a blind spot asserted that nobody had counted the displaced in Yemen; the migration organisation had published a figure the day before. On 21 September a call was drafted at 22 per cent on the premise that candidates for Secretary-General had not been formally solicited; the joint letter went out in November 2025, eight candidates are publicly listed with financing disclosures, and the Council had held its third straw poll three days earlier. In the corrected draft of the same edition, a replacement call at 30 per cent stated that no government had confirmed the Qatari mediation channel; the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council had put it on the record, by name, two days before.
Neither of the two flawed calls reached a reader. Both were caught before publication, and the published panel of 21 September contains neither. That is the editor's check working, not the desk's.
A fourth instance has now been graded rather than caught. The call published on 15 September and graded on 22 September stated that no government had named a party to the pipeline attack. The American president had said three days before it was written that Iranian authorities were probably responsible. The call lost on its own terms regardless, and it is graded two rather than three for having been priced against a condition that did not hold.
A fifth was caught on 25 September. A draft blind spot for that edition was built on an aircraft carrier's deployment to the Middle East as though it were still under way; the ship had been relieved in August. The same draft read a count of eight suicide attempts across a whole carrier strike group as a count for the carrier alone. The editor's independent check found both, and the section was replaced before publication.
A sixth was caught on 26 September. A draft line said that neither of two official counts of oil escorted out of the Strait of Hormuz had been independently counted. Nobody had searched before writing it, and the independent check pointed to a ship-tracking firm's count. The line was replaced with a statement about what this desk had read before publication.
A seventh has now been graded rather than caught. The call of 20 September that the ten-year Treasury yield would not close at or above 5.000 per cent stated its current state as the series falling to 4.94 on 17 September. It left out the Treasury's close of 5.01 on 18 September, published two days before the call was written. The call lost when the yield closed at 5.11 on 23 September, and it is graded two rather than three for the omitted close.
A correction that corrected nothing
A draft of the 21 September edition carried three self-corrections against the published edition of 20 September: that it had called the agenda not the obstacle, that it had printed a belligerent's strike figure as established record, and that it had blamed five governments collectively for a blocked vote. The 20 September edition contains none of those errors. It handled the strike figure correctly and attributed it. What the corrections actually described were unpublished drafts written that morning.
A reader following the link would have found this desk apologising for work it got right. The corrections were removed before publication. The confusion of an unpublished draft with the published record is recorded below as a fault in its own right, because the direction of the error — inventing errors rather than concealing them — does not make it harmless.
The retired chart
The weekly bar chart this page replaced is preserved, unrevised, at the archived Weekly Accuracy Chart. The change was which page the record is kept on, not what the record says.
This page is regenerated from the most recent daily edition and, where more than one edition has passed since the last regeneration, from the anchors each of those editions itself published in between. It carries no population of its own, so it cannot drift out of step with the letter for long — this update follows the board of 24 October, the day after the last, the daily cadence this page is meant to keep.
Eight known ways this scoring system can mislead, restated here so a reader can discount for them. First, most panels are built from continuity propositions, and most days most things do not change: of the 111 most recent graded predictions held as rows, 89 were continuity calls and 78 of those came true. Second, some hits rest on non-observation and are capped at the floor of a hit, lifted only on positive in-window evidence from the party who would have caused the thing. Third, a threshold occasionally gets set where routine events already clear it. Fourth, a proposition written in the direction the desk disbelieves, at a low standalone likelihood, can only lose and teaches nothing; propositions are now written in the direction the desk believes. Fifth, acting on a correction can switch off the measurement that produced it, which is why the per-panel change requirement was retired in favour of the rolling forty-prediction window. Sixth, an outcome can be decided by how a prediction was written rather than by what happened — five forms of this and the rules written against each are on record. Seventh, a proposition can be correctly drafted and simply mispriced, which is the live fault first identified in mid-September. Eighth, the 0-10 mean moves within a narrow band whatever the desk does: a hit scores 6 to 8, half of all hits sit at the floor of 6 because they rest on an absence, and a perfect board would read about 6.6, so the mean is mostly the hit rate restated. The comparison against a desk that backs continuity every time, printed above, is the test of whether the analysis adds anything. None of the eight covers a fault in what this page says about its own arithmetic, a fault in the checking tool rather than the content, a fact inherited unchecked from a prior edition, a defect introduced by revising the edition itself, a negative claim asserted without a search, a correction aimed at an error the published record does not contain, or a claim attributed to the wrong party and then promoted by its own repair — all seven of those are recorded separately above rather than folded into the list.
The approach, the six coverage domains and our scoring record — graded daily and reviewed each month — are set out on the About page.
No financial advice is expressed or implied.
Last updated 24 October 2026 from the edition of 24 October 2026 · lifetime 5.47 across 449 finalised predictions, 281 hits · form since the rebuild 5.82 across 280 · 28 predictions open, closing between 25 and 31 October 2026 · one prediction from 18 August carried unresolved · special-edition and live-call items are held on separate ledgers and excluded.
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